Sulmoney’s Oscar Predictions – Best Actress

Hans is currently in training this week, probably on how to become a better film critic, so I will be handling the Oscar’s Predictions writeups. Fear not sole fan of Hans, he will be submitting his prediction in list format later this week, before Sunday, so we can see who is the better prognosticator (me obviously).

Moving on, we come to what has been shaping up to be a two woman race in the Best Actress race, but containing 5 actresses well deserving of their nominations. The nominees are Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married), Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Melissa Leo (Frozen River), Meryl Streep (Doubt), and Kate Winslet (The Reader).

Who Will Win

 

Kate Winslet in The Reader

The sixth time will be the charm for Kate Winslet, as she goes up against her main competition in the category, the 15 time nominated Meryl Streep. The Reader has rode a wave of momentum in getting the Best Picture nomination, and the bump of Kate Winslet from the Best Supporting Actress to Best actress category. This will be more of an award that recognizes Kate Winslet for her work over the years, and to make up for past snubs. In my opinion though, she is the right actress, but the wrong movie (see below). 

Who Should Win

 

Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married

Anne Hathaway is an actress who has grown up in front of her eyes, bursting on the scene in Disney films, lending a supporting role in Academy Award nominated films, graduating to chick flick stardom and summer box office queen, but all the meantime, has found time for arthouse films. She may have been awkward and forced in some, but has finally blossomed into a fine actress. While there are many parts of Rachel Getting Married which I despised, my attention was immediately brought back to the screen anytime Hathaway was on it. Here is hoping that we get a chance to see more of her in wonderful roles and films. 

Who Was Snubbed

 

Kate Winslet in Revolutionary Road

It’s hard to say someone was snubbed when I picked them to win the category, but I am sure I am not alone in thinking that Kate Winslet’s performance in Revolutionary Road was miles ahead of what she gave us in The Reader; being naked a lot in a movie does not a great performance make. Playing a housewife who feels as her life has passed her by, Winslet shows that she is the finest actress working today, and to be in two award winning roles that merit recognition is a testament to her ability as an actress.

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Sulmoney’s Oscar Prediction – Best Supporting Actor

Viola Davis packs quite the wallop in her sole scene in Doubt, and is deserving of the nomination. However, it appears that the Penelope Cruz train is too strong, and we both agree will carry her to Oscar gold a week from now. 

Now, on to a category with perhaps the least amount of suspense, but will most likely be the most emotional award of the night, Best Supporting Actor. The nominees are Josh Brolin (Milk), Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt), Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight), and Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road).

Who Will Win

 

Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight

If there was ever a sure fire, money in the bank winner, it has to be Heath Ledger in his last completed role before his unfortunate death as the diabolic villain, The Joker in the second highest grossing film of all time, The Dark Knight. While the whole of Christopher Nolan’s epic was amazing and elevated a comic book film above its genre, it was Ledger’s performance that ensured The Dark Knight would go down in the annals of film history.

Who Should Win

 

Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight

Ledger should win. But, for the sake of argument (and just so I can write a little bit more because I need a study break and am a huge fan of this guy), the winner (in any other year) should be…

 

Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder

It is not very often that an actor in a comedy (especially one directed by Ben Stiller) gets nominated for an Academy Award, but Downey’s performance in Tropic Thunder as Kirk Lazarus, the Australian method actor to put all other method actors to shame, was simply transcendent, and cemented Downey as an actor who could pull off anything thrown at him.

Who Was Snubbed

 

Eddie Marsan in Happy Go Lucky

There were many great actors in supporting roles this year, but Eddie Marsan in Mike Leigh’s quirky Happy-Go-Lucky was quite simply amazing. Playing a driving instructor who simply could not deal with the optimistic attitude of his student, played by the in fine star making form Sally Hawkins, Marsan is nearly as terrifying as Heath Ledger’s Joker, and literally looks like he will explode at any moment whenever he is on screen. En Ra Ha.

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Hans’s #3 – Doubt

Well unfortunately, I’m not sure there’s much to bash in Sulmoney’s #4 pick of The Dark Knight. What can I say? Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

…Sulmoney is the broken clock. Here, finally, is my #3.

Doubt

In Doubt, a curmedgeonly nun and Catholic school principal (Meryl Streep) works tirelessly to expel the progressive and popular priest (Philip Seymour Hoffman) who may or may not have molested a young boy, but let’s clear up one misconception right off the bat: this is not a movie about a Catholic priest molesting a young boy. In a way, that hot-button issue is simply what Hitchcock would call the “MacGuffin.” It’s only a device that motivates the characters and inspires the real meat of this film, which essentially boils down to 5 or 6 long, drawn-out scenes of brutally uncomfortable verbal conflicts riddled with subtext and unspoken implications. Much like Frost/Nixon, Doubt is a film about argumentation and ideological clash. Incidentally, both films draw on source material from the theater, but while Frost/Nixon adapted the subject matter with a familiar underdog structure, Doubt moves in an entirely different direction and delivers a moviegoing experience unlike any other.

Ah, child molestation. It warms the heart.

Doubt is an indictment of certainty, which seems a little obvious to say the least, so let me redo that: Doubt is an indictment of certainty. With this film, writer-director John Patrick Shanley (who also penned the play on which the film is based) has crafted a Rorschach test so ambiguous that it’s really a test of the viewer’s own biases. The film never even comes close to presenting the audience with enough evidence to make a valid assessment of guilt, but every viewer will likely come out of it with their own reasons for leaning one way or the other. It’s the ultimate form of audience participation, but anybody foolish enough to believe they’ve really “solved” the mystery has likely missed the point of the film entirely.

The scene where Father Flynn mistakes Amy Adams for a young boy.

And then there’s the cast. The film relies hugely on individual performances, so it’s very fortunate that the screen is populated with some of the best actors to ever grace the big screen.  As much as I liked watching Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio rip into each other for 2 hours in Revolutionary Road, the two of them got nothing on Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman, though the Golden Globe voters would have you believe otherwise. In Doubt, these screen legends imbue every line with an intensity that’s just uncanny, and they do it all without shouting at the top of their lungs, growling all their lines, or smacking their lips while changing voices.

I haven’t even mentioned the supporting work of Viola Davis in one of the film’s most shocking reveals, the fantastic subtleties of the dialogue, or the pitch-perfect cinematography by Roger Deakins, who has made a career out of finding beauty in the mundane, but they’re all part of the laundry list of reasons why it’s a shame this film won’t receive the attention it deserves come Oscar time.

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Hans’s #8 – Vicky Cristina Barcelona

So, Sulmoney, I’ve stumped you on 2 picks already, and we’re only getting started. Obviously my level of professionalism and knowledge vastly outshines your own, but that’s to be expected when dealing with a self-proclaimed “long time fan” of professional wrestling. Here’s a spoiler for you: It’s all fake. And the Easter Bunny isn’t real, either.

To be honest, I thought The Wrestler was a fantastic piece of filmmaking that just didn’t connect with me on any personal level. Rourke’s performance was certainly impressive, but let’s be real, how much of a stretch is it for him to play a washed up star of the 1980s struggling to jumpstart his career again? Expect me to out Wrestler his Wrestler in an upcoming pick. For now, though, I present:

Vicky Cristina Barcelona

It’s with great shame that I admit this is the first and only Woody Allen movie I’ve ever seen, but honestly I think that’s for the best, because as far back as a year ago I don’t think I would’ve gotten as much out of this kind of relationship story as I did a few weeks ago. Putting together this list, I was really torn between this film and Sam Mendes‘s (of American Beauty fame) Revolutionary Road for the #8 spot. As a young, virile, incredibly manly twenty-something, there’s only so much room in my top 10 list for relationship dramas without seriously jeopardizing my street cred, but here we go anyway.

I'll do whatever you want, just don't kill me afterwards.

Thematically, the two are somewhat similar. At their cores, both films are cynical of our ability to temper our perceptions and expectations of the perfect relationship or the ideal lifestyle. Objectively, Revolutionary Road is probably the better film on most levels: direction, acting, and especially cinematography (thanks mostly to the phenomenal work of Roger Deakins). The first 40 or so minutes of Vicky Cristina Barcelona  are bogged down by some clumsy voice-over narration and cliched character set-ups with Vicky and Cristina, but once Penelope Cruz hits the screen, everything else disappeared for me. Her performance is funny, sexy, crazy, and above all, fierce, and it leads into one of the most interesting and alluring relationships captured on film all year (it’s a 3-way! And not the devil’s kind). Thanks largely to the Oscar-deserving work of Penelope (as only her most intimate acquaintances know her), in addition to the absolute pimpness of Javier Bardem (following up last year’s total badassery in No Country for Old Men) and the charming Spanish backdrop, this film has an energy and a distinctly exotic taste that gave it that slight edge in my book over Kate and Leo’s latest.

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